Biden’s State of the Union Address and Foreign Policy Priorities
Last night, President Joe Biden delivered a record-setting 73 minute State of the Union speech, but only spent approximately 5 of those discussing foreign affairs. Instead, the address prioritized bipartisan cooperation, unemployment rates, pharmaceutical prices, and other keystones of his “blue-collar blueprint.” This lack of international-focused commentary was particularly surprising considering the barrage of foreign affairs headlines in the last week: Chinese Spy Balloons, the removal of Ilhan Omar from the Foreign Affairs Committee, and human rights concerns following the earthquake in Syria and Turkey.
1. What did President Biden address in terms of international politics?
President Biden focused his foreign affairs commentary on “competition” with China, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and immigration policy.
A little over an hour into the speech, Biden began his diplomatic remarks by stating that the United States would focus on “competition, not conflict” with the P.R.C. There was no direct mention of Chinese surveillance (although it was alluded to), but instead emphasized domestic manufacturing capabilities. Biden’s address repeated that “Made in America” production would be an essential shift in the country’s trade policy in 2023, in line with the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, though potentially at-odds with the nation’s other longstanding trade partners.
Towards the end of the remarks, Biden welcomed Ukraine’s Ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, and lauded the unity of NATO in the midst of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine. In stark contrast to last year’s address, Biden spent less than two minutes discussing the situation in Ukraine, but called the war a “test for America” and promised to provide support to “stand for the defense of democracy” for as long as necessary.
Finally, Biden briefly mentioned immigration policy, and expressed hope that it could become a bipartisan issue in 2023. He shifted the onus of responsibility in stating that immigration, “won’t be fixed until Congress acts.” He praised his administration’s increase in resources and personnel at the country’s southern border and the passage of new border policies preventing unlawful immigration from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. He requested that Congress approve increased funding for the border, and establish pathways to citizenship for dreamers and temporary workers.
2. What else could have been discussed?
Despite significant ongoing superpower conflict in the East, President Biden’s remarks regarding foreign policy and international politics appeared to be more of an afterthought in comparison to last year’s address. Especially with Oksana Markarova as an honored guest at the State of the Union, it is surprising that President Biden did not double down on his criticism against Russia, and did not mention sanctions at all. In 2022, the Biden administration directed nearly $50 billion in assistance to Ukraine, but there has been increasing concern (primarily amongst Republicans) that the level of support may be unsustainable. While most Americans still favor supporting Ukraine, Pew Research has found that “the share of Republicans who say the U.S. gives too much aid to Ukraine has steadily increased, from 9% in March 2022 to 40% now.” Biden had an opportunity to reaffirm that the United States will remain an unwavering ally of Ukraine amidst Russian aggression, but seemingly backed away from such a stance during his address.
Additionally, in light of growing concern across both sides of the aisle regarding Chinese technology and surveillance (such as the recent Chinese invasion of U.S. airspace and the U.S. government banning TikTok) the national leadership’s intentions and warnings towards China could have been stronger. There was also no discussion of Taiwanese sovereignty, as to be expected in-line with the U.S.’s longstanding One China policy.
3. What does this forecast for the United States’ diplomatic role in 2023?
Although the State of the Union did not focus on international politics, global affairs will undoubtedly be a top concern for the United States in 2023.
With increasingly hostile relations between the U.S. and Russia and China, military confrontation between these countries is a legitimate possibility. Perhaps even more plausible or even inevitable is the concern of a cyberattack targeting U.S. critical infrastructure by a state or nonstate actor. According to CFR, cybersecurity is now the top homeland security concern, followed by immigration and drug-trafficking.
Additionally, Biden has been fairly hawkish regarding U.S.-Taiwan policy, vowing military support if China invades Taiwan. This growing tension with China does not appear to be ameliorating, and political instability in Russia, ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, potential war between India and Pakistan, and U.S.-China confrontation in the South China Sea all make nuclear capability a primary issue to concern policymakers this year.
Finally, policies surrounding the southern border are becoming an increasing national security concern amongst Americans. Yesterday, the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Accountability held the first of likely many hearings of the year regarding the border crisis.
4. What does this mean for the election cycle?
Biden is expected to announce his reelection campaign later this month. The State of the Union suggests that his administration has made the calculus that foreign policy will not be at the center of the political debates. Instead, Americans are more likely to vote along economic lines, amidst increasing concerns regarding inflation and the economy as a whole. Interventionism and military conflict are expensive, and increasing criticism directed at President Biden regarding the national deficit and increased spending may have motivated his office to downplay his foreign policy priorities last night.