Greece's Conservative Party Achieves "Political Earthquake" but Falls Short: What's Next for Greece and Europe
May 23, 2023
In the recent Greek national elections, the conservative New Democracy party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, secured victory by obtaining 41 percent of the total vote, surpassing the leftist Syriza party, which only garnered 20 percent. However, New Democracy fell short of the percentage required to establish a majority government, leading Prime Minister Mitsotakis to decline President Katerina Sakellaropoulou's mandate to form a coalition government and triggering the prospect of a second national vote. This article examines the implications of the elections and their impact on forming a majority government, Prime Minister Mitsotakis, the Greek economy, and Europe as a whole.
1. What happened in the elections?
As the current leader of the New Democracy party, Prime Minister Mitsotakis serves as the incumbent in Greece. Despite securing 146 seats, his party fell five seats short of the 151 needed to achieve a majority in the 300-seat Parliament. While 41% of the vote would have been sufficient for a majority government during the previous election cycle, a legislative change now requires more than 45% to form a majority. Consequently, Prime Minister Mitsotakis had two options: either form a coalition government or proceed with a second national election. Ultimately, he chose the latter, deviating from the historical trend where no Greek incumbent party had increased its vote share for over 40 years. The overwhelming success of the New Democracy party can likely be attributed to the economic growth Greece has experienced since the resolution of a decade-long financial crisis in 2018, prompting voters to prioritize stability over uncertainty. Sakis Farantakis captured a common sentiment amongst voters, saying: “They’re far from perfect, but it’s the only safe choice. We’ve moved on; why go backwards to uncertainty?” On the contrary, Syriza Party head Alexis Tsipras called the election results “exceptionally negative.”
2. What does it mean for forming a majority government?
Another Greek election will likely be held on June 25th, where Prime Minister Mitsotakis believes he will form a majority government. As a result of declining the coalition government option, a caretaker government, led by Ioannis Sarmas, was established, assuming power during this transitional phase. A caretaker government, also known as an interim government, operates temporarily in times of political crises or after elections. Its primary focus is to ensure stability and provide essential government services without making significant policy decisions or displaying favoritism towards any political party. Caretaker governments maintain neutrality and impartiality while overseeing crucial functions, maintaining law and order, managing the economy, and potentially organizing elections.
3. What does this mean for Mitsotakis?
Prior to rejecting the coalition government proposal, the socialist Pasok party appeared as the only viable candidate for collaboration with New Democracy. However, strained ties between the party leaders emerged when Prime Minister Mitsotakis acknowledged that Greece's state surveillance agency had conducted surveillance on Pasok's leader, Nikos Androulakis. This revelation, referred to as "Greek Watergate," resulted in the resignation of the chief of staff and top intelligence official. Furthermore, public protests by Greek youth continue to address allegations of government corruption, particularly in relation to inadequate infrastructure investment, as exemplified by a train crash that claimed the lives of 57 people, many of whom were students.
Nevertheless, the Greek economy remains a significant factor motivating voters. Foreign direct investment in Greece increased by 50% last year, and the country's economic growth currently outpaces the average growth rate of the eurozone, having achieved a 6% growth rate in the past year. Greece concluded three bailouts, and international supervision of its spending controls terminated in the previous summer.
It is worth noting that Prime Minister Mitsotakis hails from a prominent political family, with his father, Konstantinos Mitsotakis, having served as Prime Minister in the early 1990s, his sister, Dora Bakoyannis, having held the position of foreign minister, and her son, Kostas Bakoyannis, currently serving as the mayor of Athens.
4. How may Greece’s elections impact Europe more generally?
The impact of Greece's elections extends beyond its borders, particularly in relation to immigration policies. Prime Minister Mitsotakis has staunchly defended Greece's strict approach to immigration, resulting in heightened border controls and a 90% decrease in migrant arrivals since 2015. His government has been criticized by human rights groups for pushing back migrants at sea and creating migrant camps. However, these immigration policies have generally been popular amongst Greek voters.
In the aftermath of the Greek elections, several Party leaders conveyed messages that resonate with Europe as a whole. Thanasis Bakolas, the secretary general of the center-right European People's Party, characterized the resounding victory of the New Democracy party as a “clear and undisputed message all over Europe.” He then added, “A message to Brussels? — Today’s electoral result is a clear message against all those outside Greece who have consistently questioned the quality of Greek democracy and the will of the Greek people.”